High DAUs can trick you into thinking you’ve got product-market fit when you don’t. And that’s a dangerous illusion — because while you’re celebrating, the cracks are already forming.
The DAU Delusion: Why Everyone Falls for It
DAUs are easy to get. Just throw up a feature. Do a Product Hunt launch. Run some paid traffic. You’ll get clicks. People will poke around. A few might even stick around for a while.
But here’s the thing nobody tells you: Activity is not the same as traction.
Let me break that down:
- DAU measures those who showed up.
- PMF is about who needs you so badly that they’d be upset if you disappeared.
Those are not the same people. You don’t need DAUs. You need desperate users. People who can’t do their job — or live their life — without your product.
When My DAUs Lied to Me
My best friend told me, in his second startup, his DAUs looked amazing. He was riding high off a Product Hunt feature and a few viral tweets. For three weeks, it looked like he had nailed it.
Behind the scenes, retention was tanking. People came and left. They didn’t find us useful — they just found us interesting. And that’s when he learned a lesson he’ll never forget:
DAUs tell you who’s curious. Not who’s committed.
So, what should smart founders track instead?
If you’re serious about finding a product-market fit, here’s the truth:
You don’t need more users. You need more independence.
Here’s what the best founders look at — quietly, behind the scenes — while everyone else is chasing DAU vanity fireworks.
1. “High-Intent Core Actions” (HICA)
Forget just using your product. Ask:
Are they doing the one thing that proves they get the value?
This is your “aha moment” metric. But not just the first time — it’s repeated, high-intent behavior.
Examples:
- A scheduling tool? → The user sets up 3+ meetings.
- A note-taking app? → The user returns and creates 5+ notes across 2 sessions.
- A job board? → The user applies to multiple jobs and returns unprompted.
This metric proves commitment, not curiosity.
2. “Unprompted Return Rate”
Everyone tracks Day 1, Day 7, and Day 30 retention. But here’s what PMF founders do:
They measure how many users come back with no nudge. No email. No push. Nothing.
Why? Because true value pulls users back. No marketing required.
If someone returns without you reminding them, it means you’re solving a real problem, not creating artificial engagement.
3. “If We Shut Down?”
This one’s old-school. But it’s gold. Ask your users, “If this product disappeared tomorrow, how upset would you be?”
- Very upset → You’re close to PMF.
- Mildly annoyed → Keep working.
- Meh, wouldn’t care → You’re miles away.
PMF isn’t user love. It’s user dependence.
4. Revenue from Desperate Segments
If you’re charging money, look at who pays the fastest and complains the loudest when it breaks. That’s your core market. Product-market fit often hides in:
- A tiny but loud niche
- A weird industry segment you didn’t expect
- A user who DMs you with “WHEN WILL THIS FEATURE BE FIXED?!”
The more they care, the more you’re onto something.
Instead of “How many users came today?” Ask, “How many users needed us today?”
Look for obsession, not just activity.
Find pain, not just clicks.
Chase necessity, not novelty.
Because product-market fit isn’t about who visits. It’s about who stays — even if you stop asking.
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