Did you Google Trends always refuses to show real search volume? You only get relative popularity, not the number of people actually typing a keyword into Google.
But with one simple comparison trick, you can reverse-engineer real search volume — accurately enough to build winning SEO bets, validate niches, and predict keyword surges before the crowd notices.
This method isn’t fancy. It’s not a “guru hack. It’s mathematics, common sense, and a reliable reference keyword.
Accept the Truth: Google Trends ≠ Search Volume
Google Trends only shows popularity og keywords, never reveal the exact numbers.
100 ≠ 100 searches
100 ≠ 100K searches
100 is simply the peak of that keyword’s own timeline.
That’s why we can’t see raw numbers straight from Trends. But we can map popularity → search volume if we use one keyword with known traffic as a base reference. This is the rule that changes everything.
Find a Keyword With a Known Search Volume
You need one “anchor keyword” whose traffic you actually know. But how you will get the real number?
Use Google Ads Keyword Planner.
Google ads requires you to spent money to unlock real data. If you haven’t, Google will only show “ranges” (useless for our trick).
Which keyword should you use as your reference?
A great one is
GPTs → roughly 5,000+ daily searches
However — and here’s the weird part — Google Ads merges GPTs into GPT, so the number you see (24.9M monthly) is not what you want. So instead, use a cleaner reference keyword like
“AI image editor” → ~200,000 searches in October
≈ 6,600 searches/day**
This number is precise and unmerged. Perfect anchor keyword.
Compare the Two Keywords in Google Trends
Now go to Google Trends and compare:
GPTs vs. AI image editor
You’ll notice “AI image editor” has slightly more popularity, and the real data shows this metric (6600/day vs. ~5000/day).
Now Reverse-Engineer Any Keyword You Want
Let’s say you want to estimate this one:
“AI Photo Editor”
Trends show that:
AI Photo Editor ≈ 3× GPTs’ popularity
We already know GPTs have approximately 5,000 daily searches.
AI Photo Editor ≈ 5,000 × 3 = 15,000 daily searches
or roughly
≈ 540,000 monthly searches
Then we go back to Google Ads to verify…
Actual Google Ads number (September): 550,000
Your estimate is dead-on.
No expensive tools.
No secret dashboards.
Just logic and Google Trends.
But wait… a plot twist
Google Ads shows:
October search volume = 1.5 million
Triple in September! But Google Trends shows almost no spike.
What does this mean?
Google Ads merged multiple keywords into one bucket.
This happens all the time. It’s how Google silently inflates or compresses keyword volume.
What keyword suddenly exploded in October and got merged with “AI Photo Editor”?
Find that keyword → You may uncover a new trend, a breakout product, or a niche that’s exploding without competitors noticing yet. This is where real SEO gems come from.
Why This Method Works Shockingly Well
You are essentially building your own DIY keyword research model:
- Anchor keyword → known daily volume
- Trends popularity → scaling factor
- Unknown keyword → real estimated volume
It’s free. It’s accurate enough to make strategic decisions. And it beats relying on inconsistent keyword tools that all disagree with one another.
Unconventional Insights You Won’t Hear From “SEO Gurus”
- Google Trends is not meant for keyword volume… but it’s the best forecasting tool you’ll ever use.
- Ads Keyword Planner merges keywords silently every month.
- A stable trends graph with a sudden ads jump = hidden emerging keyword variation.
- Trends can detect seasonal changes up to 30 days earlier than SEO tools.
Google Trends is not a hammer — it’s actually sonar. You’re locating signals other SEOs miss.
This Trick Lets You Predict Search Volume Before It Goes Viral
You don’t need Ahrefs.
You don’t need Semrush.
You don’t need Ubersuggest.
Everything you need is:
- Google Ads (with small ad spend)
- Google Trends
- One clean reference keyword
From there, you can estimate any keyword’s traffic with surprising accuracy — and even detect Google’s hidden data merges.

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