Let me paint you a familiar scene:
You open the FanDuel app.
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A bright banner screams: “30% Profit Boost on Same Game Parlay!”
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You’re thinking, “Why not toss $20 on Mahomes over 2.5 TDs, Chiefs to win, and Kelce to score first?”
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A $20 bet shows a potential payout of $480.
It feels like printing money.
But here’s the savage truth:
FanDuel’s Same Game Parlays (SGPs) are designed to separate you from your cash — even if you think you’re being smart.
Yet… believe it or not…
They can be +EV (positive expected value) sometimes.
Let’s break it all down — promos vs. cold-blooded math.
Why FanDuel Loves Pushing SGPs
FanDuel doesn’t shove SGPs down your throat because they’re losing money on them.
They do it because:
✅ They’re insanely profitable.
✅ They look irresistible to casual bettors.
✅ They exploit bettor psychology.
Here’s why:
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SGPs combine high correlation bets into massive odds.
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Casual bettors overestimate correlations and underprice risk.
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FanDuel’s odds algorithm bakes in extra margin for each leg.
Basically:
Your +480 parlay should realistically be +700 — but they’re not gonna tell you that.
Correlation Is the Sneaky Killer
Example:
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Mahomes over 2.5 TDs → highly correlated with Chiefs to win.
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Kelce first TD → correlated with Mahomes passing yards.
So, you think:
“These things all happen together! Why not stack them?”
But FanDuel’s odds engine knows this.
Instead of multiplying true odds, they:
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Lower payouts for correlated combos.
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Make your “huge” payout actually terrible value.
It’s the reason SGPs often pay far less than true probability dictates.
The Math No One Shows You
Let’s get nerdy for one second.
Suppose:
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Mahomes over 2.5 TDs: +150 (implied ~40% chance)
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Chiefs moneyline: -200 (implied ~66.7%)
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Kelce first TD: +700 (~12.5%)
Naive calculation:
0.40 × 0.667 × 0.125 = 0.033 or 3.3% chance
Implied fair odds: ~ +2930 (about 29 to 1 payout)
FanDuel’s SGP payout: +1200 (12 to 1)
So you’re betting into a massive hold of ~30-50%.
FanDuel is pocketing an outrageous margin.
Are SGPs Ever +EV?
Shockingly… sometimes, yes.
Here’s when:
1. Promos Actually Tilt the Math
FanDuel occasionally offers:
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Full refunds if one leg loses.
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Profit boosts (20-50%).
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Free bets on SGPs.
If the boost offsets the baked-in margin, your SGP can go from:
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-EV → +EV
Example:
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Normal payout: +400
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Profit boost bumps it to +600
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If true odds are +550 → Now it’s slightly +EV.
2. Books Make Mistakes on Small Markets
SGPs on obscure sports sometimes slip through:
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Niche soccer leagues
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Early WNBA props
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Lower-tier European basketball
If you’re sharp enough to spot true correlations and market errors, you can create +EV SGPs.
But that’s rare.
3. Hedging or Arbitrage Opportunities
Sometimes lines differ between:
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FanDuel SGP odds
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Separate single-game markets at other books
Sharps exploit that gap:
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Bet SGP at FanDuel.
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Hedge opposite outcomes elsewhere.
But again — requires serious effort.
The House Loves That You Keep Trying
Why is FanDuel obsessed with SGPs?
✅ They know casual bettors love lottery tickets.
✅ They know you’ll chase a big score.
✅ They know the math is hidden and complex.
So they keep pushing:
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Free bet promos
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Profit boosts
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Flash odds
It’s brilliant marketing disguised as “value.”
How to Protect Yourself
Look — I’m not saying SGPs are evil.
If you’re betting for fun:
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Go nuts.
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Throw $10 on a crazy combo.
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Treat it like Powerball.
But if you’re trying to win long-term:
✅ Price out the individual legs. Compare combined odds to the SGP payout.
✅ Factor in promos. Sometimes a boost flips the edge in your favor.
✅ Avoid huge same-game combos. More legs = higher margin.
✅ Don’t believe the hype. Those “huge payouts” are usually not fair market odds.
My Unfiltered Advice
Here’s the brutal truth:
FanDuel’s Same Game Parlays are designed to drain your bankroll — unless you know exactly how to beat them.
Yes, they’re fun.
Yes, the promos sometimes help.
But if you’re blindly betting SGPs because the app tells you to…
You’re probably playing right into FanDuel’s hands.
Now you know.
So the next time you see:
“Profit boost on Same Game Parlay!”
Ask yourself:
“Is this a gift… or am I just feeding the beast?”
Because the math doesn’t lie.
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